Knjižnica dokumenata

Analize i izvješća iz think-tankova i OSINT izvora

Trump turned tariffs from a response to the China shock into a durable, more sweeping tool of U.S. economic statecraft. Even as courts challenge his methods, future presidents are unlikely to surrender the executive’s expanded trade powers. The result will be a more volatile, bil…

China now has greater scale than the United States across nearly every dimension of great-power competition, leaving Washington unable to balance Beijing on its own. The only viable path is to build "allied scale" by transforming bilateral alliances into a platform for pooled eco…

Economic power is no longer about writing rules in global institutions; it is about weaponizing interdependence. China's response to Trump's tariffs, wielding its dominance of critical mineral supply chains, has set a precedent more important than the tariffs themselves. The Unit…

Partisanship and the collapse of the foreign policy establishment are making U.S. national security policy less durable, with presidents acting alone and consensus increasingly out of reach. The likely result is short-lived policies, weak alliances, and a strategic disadvantage a…

America’s rupture with allies, institutions, and global economic norms has left the next U.S. president an international economic system that bears little resemblance to the one that preceded it. The task at hand is not restoration but reinvention.

The Iran war has showcased U.S. precision firepower but exposed glaring vulnerabilities, from rapidly depleted munitions stockpiles to inadequate defenses against cheap drones. Washington should buy fewer expensive manned platforms and far more low-cost drones and counter-drone s…

Strained alliances, depleted munitions, and an unsustainable defense budget will force U.S. military planners into hard trade-offs even as China and Russia loom larger. To deter both countries, the Pentagon should compete asymmetrically with flexible, innovative capabilities, and…

Europe is on track to defend itself against Russia but unlikely to project meaningful power beyond its borders, leaving the continent an inward-looking island of stability. For the United States, that is a mixed blessing: a stronger Europe at home frees up U.S. capabilities elsew…

The Western Hemisphere has bifurcated into a North America aligned with Washington and a South America tilting toward Beijing. A more immediate danger comes from criminal-political-business networks across Latin America. Washington should compete more effectively with China and c…

Over the next decade, African states will face mounting threats to their legitimacy and sovereignty, with some becoming client states of outside patrons and others gaining leverage from competition over critical minerals, demographics, and geography. To remain relevant on a conti…

Climate change poses a major geopolitical and economic threat, reshaping coastlines, opening the Arctic, driving migration, straining water supplies, and magnifying extreme heat. U.S. policymakers systematically underestimate these cascading risks and are failing to invest in ada…

Alliances remain Washington's single greatest strategic advantage over China and Russia, but the old transatlantic bargain of U.S. protection for European loyalty is no longer politically sustainable. A more autonomous Europe within a rebalanced alliance is the better future for …

We discuss: Mentioned on the Episode:  “Planet Successfully Runs AI in Space,” Planet “Thales Alenia Space Reveals Results of ASCEND Feasibility Study On Space Data Centers,” Thales Alenia Space “Is AI Putting Graduates Out of Work Already?,” The Economist The Spillover is a…

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is pleased to announce a new grant to launch the Project on Rebuilding the Case for Global Health and Development in Foreign Policy. It will spur fresh thinking and mobilize support for global health and development finance. “Now more than e…

The diffusion of power across the international system, the return of great power competition, and the rapid advance of revolutionary technologies—from artificial intelligence to autonomous weapons—have forced a reassessment of how the United States deters adversaries, sustains a…

A long-awaited meeting produced modest stability but no grand deals—for Southeast Asia and South Asia, it could have been worse, but the region has reacted with significant worry about the summit’s outcomes.

The Beijing summit did not resolve U.S.-China competition. Instead, it gave the rest of the world reason to worry about a new uncertainty: whether U.S.-China “strategic stability” will restrain rivalry, conceal it, or turn it into a bilateral bargain over their heads.

The country’s elite is paying the price for championing dubious ideologies at the expense of basic economics.

Artificial intelligence diffusion is stress-testing the assumptions that underpin U.S. cybersecurity. Inspecting those foundations isn’t a precaution against scaling AI—it’s the precondition for doing it with confidence.

A technical post with an important update to my estimate of China’s true holdings of U.S. bonds.

April’s edition of China and Climate provides an update on China’s response to the Iran war and unpacks recent climate governance measures, the Spanish prime minister’s trip to Beijing, Chinese battery manufacturing strengths, and the anticipation of extreme flooding in 2026.

CFR President Michael Froman analyzes the form and substance of this week’s highly anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.