The June 2025 U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program ended the era of diplomatic counterproliferation, replacing it with recurring military action that may delay—but not eliminate—Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The Iranian regime could emerge more determined to pursue concealed nuclear capabilities, while the broader nonproliferation order erodes. The result would be a more dangerous Middle East and a United States that, despite its desire to pivot elsewhere, remains trapped in the region.