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Analize i izvješća iz think-tankova i OSINT izvora

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThe U.S.-Iranian ceasefire agreed in April began deteriorating — …

Let’s not start picking out uniforms just yet. The chorus calling for a Cyber Force continues to grow by the day, but the debate has its priorities backward. In June, an amendment from Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) calling for the creation of a cyber service with…

In 2024, Max Bergmann wrote, “NATO Missed a Chance to Transform Itself,” where he argued NATO’s leadership needs to facilitate a strong European pillar of the alliance through structural reforms in European institutions. Two years later, we asked Max to revisit …

For 18 days in June, two of America’s most capable AI models went dark worldwide, not for technical or business reasons, but because the U.S. government ordered it. On June 12, 2026, the Commerce Department informed Anthropic that its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models could no lo…

Editor’s note: This is the fifth article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader national security, politics, and society. This series will run for several weeks to commemorate America’s 250th annive…

On July 10, 1943, the Allied invasion of Sicily — codenamed Operation Husky — put more assault troops ashore on its first day than the Normandy landings would 11 months later. Despite the scale of these amphibious and vertical assaults on the Mediterranean’s lar…

In March 2025, China’s military researchers published a concept describing how to rapidly capture and subdue the city of Taipei. Distributed in restricted military channels, this approach argues Beijing can achieve victory “by blocking the city’s ability to rece…

Ukraine’s expanding use of drones at all ranges has changed the war’s momentum. This episode examines how Kyiv is reaching deeper into Russian territory, disrupting operations and logistics as well as energy infrastructure. How is Russia adapting (or not)? Can these s…

The U.S. war with Iran has had political, economic, and military implications that spread far beyond the Middle East. We asked five experts to assess how the war with Iran has affected U.S. bilateral relations with key countries that illustrate some of the global ramificatio…

There’s a clear consensus that America hollowed out its critical minerals base. How to rebuild it is less settled. Alex Grant of Magrathea Metals and Wes Spurlock of Principal Mineral join Jonathan to discuss the processing technology, labor force, and how government can ca…

Editorial Note: The dates cited in Eugene Politovsky’s account are from the old Russian Orthodox calendar, which is 13 days behind that of the (Gregorian) calendar system used in this article.A recent War on the Rocks article on the failure of the Spanish Reserve Fleet to p…

Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrai…

Somewhere, a hard drive is filling up with secrets no one can read yet, and its owner is waiting for the machine that opens them all at once. On March 30, 2026, that wait got shorter.Two independent research teams lowered the public estimates for breaking the encryption that secu…

The secretary of defense’s November announcement on acquisition reform laid out an unprecedented vision across the entire acquisition spectrum to improve the delivery speed of critical capabilities to our warfighters. One foundational pillar is the implementation of a comme…

Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum only for War on the Rocks members.Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves…

Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary from across the political spectrum.Every Monday, War on the Rocks members get a curated selection of op-eds and editorials from Ukrainian-language media to understand how Ukrainians themselves debate the bigg…

Before the twentieth century gave armies antibiotics, the leading killer of American soldiers in wartime was neither enemy fire nor shrapnel. Two-thirds of the roughly 620,000 deaths in the U.S. Civil War came from diseases like typhoid and dysentery. Spread through contaminated …

It’s 2028, and the Fujian carrier strike group has just left Yulin, China, for an unknown destination. The U.S. Navy’s “Hedge Strategy” has let commanders disperse unmanned systems across regional choke points as forward-deployed scouts. But days before co…

Waguih Ghali, Beer in the Snooker Club (Vintage International, 2014)The noise, the noise, the unrelenting noise of the world: How is any writer with an interest in the long view supposed to escape it, if only for a couple hours to work, let alone maintain their sanity in the rema…

The relationship between Congress and the Pentagon over the past year has been marked by public disagreements and frustrations over lawmakers’ concerns about the Iran War, and by what some lawmakers view as politically motivated firings of top military leaders. In many ways…

Nothing reveals truths more effectively than patterns. If you can identify a pattern, you can see what actions conceal, what statements leave unsaid, and what agreements postpone. Peace treaties and the negotiations surrounding them are rarely analyzed in this way, even though th…

Editor’s note: This is the tenth article in an 11-part series examining how the United States should organize, lead, and integrate economic statecraft into strategy, defense practice, and the broader national security ecosystem. The special series is brought to you by the&#…

In 2020, Austin Doctor wrote, “The Looming Influx of Foreign Fighters in Sub-Saharan Africa,” in which he predicted the region would see an influx of foreign fighters to aid Islamist extremist groups. Six years later, we asked Austin to revisit his arguments.Image: Af…

Editor’s note: This is the third article in a limited series celebrating American defense technologies born from wartime and their effects on broader national security, politics, and society. This series will run for several weeks to commemorate America’s 250th annive…

Earlier this spring, Claude’s developers found the cyber potential of Anthropic’s model, Mythos 5, hazardous enough to pump the brakes on model release, creating the Project Glasswing collaboration to give cyber defenders the upper hand through controlled access to th…