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Analize i izvješća iz think-tankova i OSINT izvora

1959 – 2026 Since Fidel Castro’s ascent to power in 1959, U.S.-Cuba ties have endured a nuclear crisis, a long U.S. economic embargo, and persistent political hostilities. The diplomatic relationship thawed under President Barack Obama, but many restrictions have since been renew…

The CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker can be used to gauge the vulnerability of emerging markets to default on external debt. On the map below, the darker the red the more vulnerable the country. The CFR Sovereign Risk Index value suggests the likelihood of a country defaulting within f…

We Discuss: Mentioned on the Episode: “Joint Statement Following Discussions with Leaders of the People’s Republic of China (Shanghai Communiqué)” U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian “President Reagan’s Six Assurances to Taiwan” C…

Alyssa Ayres has spent decades as a foreign policy practitioner on U.S.-India relations across government, think tanks, and the private sector. Her path was one of exploration, driven by a deep curiosity about her area of expertise.

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has launched the Future of American Strategy Initiative, a multiyear effort to develop a forward-looking strategic vision for U.S. foreign policy. The initiative is launching at a time when the global role of the United States is more contes…

Alliances remain Washington's single greatest strategic advantage over China and Russia, but the old transatlantic bargain of U.S. protection for European loyalty is no longer politically sustainable. A more autonomous Europe within a rebalanced alliance is the better future for …

The liberal international order is not collapsing in a single dramatic moment but fragmenting, as middle powers build exclusive coalitions with their own norms and rules. If Washington does not rebuild trust with the middle-power countries that once anchored U.S. leadership, its …

The AI race is currently a contest between the United States and China in which private labs increasingly rival nation-states in power and reach. To maintain the United States’ lead, policymakers must build strong relationships with the labs and a regulatory environment that supp…

Wars in Ukraine and Iran have exposed both the depleted state of U.S. munitions stockpiles and the urgent need to integrate cheap, AI-enabled capabilities alongside legacy platforms. A grand strategy worthy of the name starts with a more resilient and innovative defense industria…

The June 2025 U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program ended the era of diplomatic counterproliferation, replacing it with recurring military action that may delay—but not eliminate—Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The Iranian regime could emerge more determined to pursue concealed…

The old international order is dying as power shifts from West to East and the digital age dismantles the industrial-era social contract that anchored U.S. democracy. American grand strategy must therefore do two things at once: shape a pluralistic, multipolar order abroad and re…

Americans are tired of the burdens of global leadership, but downsizing the postwar order does not change the laundry list of problems the United States still has to manage day in and day out. The order Washington built produced unprecedented great-power peace and shared prosperi…

Trump has so thoroughly upended long-established principles of U.S. foreign policy that his successor will have no choice but to conduct a fundamental, zero-based review of U.S. goals and the means to achieve them. Experts should start that work now, distinguishing the "need to d…

History shows that U.S. strategy oscillates between activism and retrenchment, and the decade ahead will likely feature efforts to make foreign policy less ideological, less global, less bloody, and less unilateral. But every period of downsizing eventually triggers a backlash wh…

AI capabilities are doubling every four months, and the resulting disruptions to jobs, civil liberties, and national security will make AI the central issue of the 2028 election. Effective policy must regulate domestic safety, share the economic gains broadly, and maximize the U.…

The Middle East's center of gravity has shifted to the Gulf, and the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran may well accelerate that trend. As Americans debate whether the United States' core regional interests are still worth defending, Washington is likely to reduce its posture in the M…

Economic warfare has gone global, and the post-1990s economic order, built for an age of efficiency rather than rivalry, is fragmenting. Three futures are possible: managed globalization, competing blocs, or pure transactionalism.

Trump turned tariffs from a response to the China shock into a durable, more sweeping tool of U.S. economic statecraft. Even as courts challenge his methods, future presidents are unlikely to surrender the executive’s expanded trade powers. The result will be a more volatile, bil…

China now has greater scale than the United States across nearly every dimension of great-power competition, leaving Washington unable to balance Beijing on its own. The only viable path is to build "allied scale" by transforming bilateral alliances into a platform for pooled eco…

Economic power is no longer about writing rules in global institutions; it is about weaponizing interdependence. China's response to Trump's tariffs, wielding its dominance of critical mineral supply chains, has set a precedent more important than the tariffs themselves. The Unit…

Partisanship and the collapse of the foreign policy establishment are making U.S. national security policy less durable, with presidents acting alone and consensus increasingly out of reach. The likely result is short-lived policies, weak alliances, and a strategic disadvantage a…

America’s rupture with allies, institutions, and global economic norms has left the next U.S. president an international economic system that bears little resemblance to the one that preceded it. The task at hand is not restoration but reinvention.

The Iran war has showcased U.S. precision firepower but exposed glaring vulnerabilities, from rapidly depleted munitions stockpiles to inadequate defenses against cheap drones. Washington should buy fewer expensive manned platforms and far more low-cost drones and counter-drone s…

Strained alliances, depleted munitions, and an unsustainable defense budget will force U.S. military planners into hard trade-offs even as China and Russia loom larger. To deter both countries, the Pentagon should compete asymmetrically with flexible, innovative capabilities, and…

Europe is on track to defend itself against Russia but unlikely to project meaningful power beyond its borders, leaving the continent an inward-looking island of stability. For the United States, that is a mixed blessing: a stronger Europe at home frees up U.S. capabilities elsew…