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Analize i izvješća iz think-tankova i OSINT izvora

As American and Iranian diplomats gathered in early April in Islamabad for Pakistan‑mediated ceasefire talks to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and its regional allies, including Hizballah, a sticking point emerged: whether the ceasefire was to include Lebanon. The Unite…

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThree weeks since a ceasefire took effect, the United States and Iran h…

On Jan. 3, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, and they are now imprisoned in the United States. That operation followed a buildup of U.S. military assets in the Caribbean and the launching of strikes against boats allegedly trafficking dru…

Hungary has turned the page. After 16 years of rule by Viktor Orbán, opposition leader Péter Magyar has emerged as the winner by a landslide. Ryan is joined by Sándor Ésik, the lawyer and writer behind the Hungarian Muse, to understand how Orbán buil…

Last month, President Donald Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for a visit that captured both the promise and the shortcomings of America’s Indo‑Pacific strategy.In some ways, the meeting was a success: It produced a few commercial deals, reaffirmed …

Editor’s note: This article is the eighth in an 11-part series examining how the United States should organize, lead, and integrate economic statecraft into strategy, defense practice, and the broader national security ecosystem. This special series is brought to you by the…

In 2024, Judd Devermont wrote, “Human Geography Is Mission-Critical,” where he argued that the United States should focus on behaviors and attitudes informed by human geography to craft better strategy. Two years later, we asked Judd to revisit his arguments. Ima…

The United States and Canada are both racing to rebuild their defense industrial bases, recognizing that future conflicts will be determined not only by military capability, but by the ability to produce at scale. But they cannot succeed alone — and importantly, they do not…

On April 25, armed groups launched near-simultaneous attacks against military installations and key strategic sites across Mali. Claimed by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, a jihadist group, and conducted in coordination with Tuareg separatist forces from the Front de …

During the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War, a 26-year-old company commander’s unit was pinned down by a fortified hilltop. After frontal assaults failed, the junior officer made an extraordinary request: an entire battalion, four times the size of his own unit, for a jungle flanki…

In the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, much that could go wrong did for the Russian military. As one volunteer organization called KatyaValya recalled:We called all our military friends in (Russian-held) Donetsk, but no one could really explain …

Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrai…

The term “affordable mass” entered public defense discourse in 2021 as a munitions concept, which the Air Force adopted in 2023 to describe its effort to field large numbers of lower-cost, semi-autonomous aircraft to complement crewed fighters. The term has since spre…

The military modernization and technological ambitions of the People’s Republic of China dominate headlines in Washington. Hypersonic missiles, AI breakthroughs, and an expanding navy are the visible symbols of competition with the Chinese Communist Party. But if the United…

On the night of Aug. 9, 1942, an Allied fleet of 17 warships guarded the approaches to Guadalcanal. The fleet was newer, larger, and better equipped than the Japanese force bearing down on it. It had six heavy cruisers, two light cruisers, and nine destroyers. It carried radar, a…

The U.S. military is firing million-dollar missiles at Iranian drones that cost a tiny fraction as much — a striking example of the kind of overmatch modern warfare punishes.The Department of Defense’s approach to electromagnetic spectrum policy follows a similar logi…

Closing small boat stations has proven difficult. Leaving them unchanged is operationally inefficient. These units are enduring parts of the Coast Guard’s force structure, yet their full potential is not always realized. This article proposes a model to better align their m…

Michael Kofman joined Ryan at a live event earlier this year to discuss the performance of American defense technology in Ukraine and why it often falls short. They examine the challenges of fielding and iterating systems in combat, from poor implementation and weak feedback loop…

Editor’s note: This article is the seventh in an 11-part series examining how the United States should organize, lead, and integrate economic statecraft into strategy, defense practice, and the broader national security ecosystem. This special series is brought to you by th…

The debate over how best to deter China in the western Pacific has reached a new level of ambition. Ely Ratner, a former senior defense official in the Biden administration, proposed a “Pacific Defense Pact” — a legally binding multilateral treaty among the Unit…

In 2024, Paul van Hooft and Tim Sweijs wrote, “Two-Theater Tragedy: A Reluctant Europe Cannot Easily Escape a Sino-American War Over Taiwan,” where they argued a war in the Indo-Pacific would likely draw in and weaken Europe, even if European states try to remain on t…

In the 1986 World Cup, Diego Maradona scored his infamous “Hand of God” goal — an obvious handball that went uncalled, because the referee did not have the tools to see it. Today, soccer has addressed that vulnerability with sensors and video review, ensuring th…

What happens when a country develops a cyber strategy that depends on the capabilities it is actively cutting?The White House’s new cyber strategy offers exactly that kind of contradiction by pairing a strong vision for resilience and competition with policy choices that pu…

The reality that regime change is not going to happen as a result of this war seems to have settled in at the White House. When American policymakers reflect and wonder why Iran did not react like Venezuela under pressure, they will not just be misreading Iran — they will b…

When the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, there were immediate impacts on the countries to Iran’s west — as Iran struck multiple Gulf Arab states and Jordan, Iraq absorbed direct attacks while facing renewed risks of internal stability, Israel launch…