The European Union is likely to avoid a full-blown trade confrontation with China due to internal divisions in the bloc and fear of retaliation, according to a prominent research firm. The projection comes amid speculation that the two sides are on the brink of a trade war, with European policymakers raising the alarm about a looming “China shock 2.0” and pushing for stronger measures to protect domestic producers from Chinese competition. But the bloc would “continue to pull its punches” in any...